I responded to one thread with this info, but it may bear it's own thread now that we finally have Ana and will likely have Bill by the time most people are reading this...
I make my living in transoceanic shipping, and so pay extremely close attention to weather that can impact routes from North America to the Med and West and South Africa.
If you are worried or just curious about tropical weather systems (depressions, storms, and hurricanes) I strongly recommend the National Hurricane Center website and specifically their Tropical Weather Outlook for general info and the "Discussion" tab for specific storms.
The discussion section is where the forecasters lay out their reasoning behind the forecasts in easy to understand terms. If the models are all over the place and they are splitting the difference, this is where they tell you. If the track models are tightly grouped and they think they really now where a storm is going, they will tell you that, too.
The forecasters frequently remind us that the track and intensity forecasts lose accuracy quickly as you move further into the future. This should always be kept in mind by people thinking that a specific location is in the clear-or that one is lin ed up for a definate hit.